Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 84.6%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète1 juin 23, 06:50 UTC1 janv. 28, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
As of 2023, China's artificial intelligence (AI) sector has achieved outsized success, with Chinese companies dominating the top five spots in a U.S. government ranking of the most accurate facial recognition technology producers.
- This success is attributed to the alignment of interests between AI technology and autocratic rulers, with AI being a fundamentally predictive technology and autocratic regimes known for collecting vast amounts of data1.
- The growth in FLOPs used for ML training over time has been substantial, with increasing access to cloud computing resources and declining costs contributing to this trend.
- Before January 1, 2028, will any media report a machine learning training run in China exceeding 10^26 FLOP?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2028, there is credible media reporting of a machine learning training run in China that exceeds 10^26 FLOP.
