Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Foreign military intervention in Namibia in the next ten years? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 82.9% au 27 octobre 2026.

Foreign military intervention in Namibia in the next ten years?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 82.9%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 44 minutes

8 janv. 23, 18:43 UTC8 janv. 33, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Resolves to YES if, according to a credible variety of international news media, any foreign military intervenes in Namibia in the next ten years.

"Intervention" could be declaration of war, invasion, bombing, etc. I am asking this question because oil was recently discovered in Namibia; a cynic might feel that the discovery of oil makes military action more likely (whether its stated purpose is related to oil or not).
Resolution of the market does not care what is the purpose of the intervention, only whether an intervention occurs or not.