Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / UkraineChessSport3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 64.3%
Prévisionnistes
122
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète6 juin 23, 20:56 UTC2 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
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PolymarketRègles
This market is specifically asking whether the Russians deliberately blew up / sabotaged the dam vs whether it was merely negligence on their part.
- One caveat to the above: the question is ultimately about intention.
- If it becomes known with confidence that the Russians deliberately neglected to maintain the dam with intention that it should fail, then I would resolve YES.
- But the presumption would be against this if it failed through lack of maintenance rather than active sabotage.
- To be resolved by the consensus of American sources.
- I may choose to resolve to Market if there is some ambiguity and the market price seems basically reasonable and not manipulated or an artifact of poor liquidity, but if not, or if it seems pretty clear cut to me, then I'll resolve to my own best judgement of the consensus of trustworthy American sources, including both government sources and news media.