Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffPolitiqueMoyen-OrientCriminalité et justice2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 71%
Prévisionnistes
75
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète24 avr. 24, 14:46 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve Yes if the story is confirmed that 100 or more total bodies were discovered buried in the area, and the bodies are generally in line with the descriptions in this article from UN News: https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148876?utm
- Very specific details such as a catheter still being inserted in a corpse do not need to be verified, but if for example there are "only" 50 bodies and all of them are adult men with clothes on buried by Palestinians in January before the IDF arrived, this would resolve No. If there is a layer of fresher bodies buried by the IDF with signs of constraint such as zip ties, then this will resolve Yes.
- Verification will come from forthcoming independent investigation requested by the UN as mentioned here: https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/middleeast/un-calls-for-investigation-gaza-mass-graves-mime-intl/index.html
- This may take some time, so closure and resolution can be delayed.
- Feel free to discuss standards and share information in the comments.
- The standards of this market do not represent my personal ethics, but rather what I believe would be persuasive to a neutral or skeptical party.