Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)
One-OffScienceSanté et médecine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%En tête parmi 6 options
Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%Prévisionnistes
26
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète8 janv. 25, 14:26 UTC1 janv. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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KalshiRègles
Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript
- This version was created in order to be able to resolve options prior to 2029.
- The reference date is the date a peer reviewed manuscript first appears online at the journal website or is otherwise published by any of these three journals after being accepted for publication.
- Any peer reviewed manuscript type is acceptable.
- If lab leak likelihood is generally accepted based on data and analysis elsewhere, inevitably this will be cited approvingly in a peer reviewed manuscript in one of these journals shortly thereafter.
- Any statement equivalent to finding over 50% likelihood for SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory that reflects author(s) conclusions and is published following peer review qualifies.
