Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / Ukraine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 86.4%
Prévisionnistes
51
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète21 déc. 22, 23:21 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?
Manifold MarketsAt least one fatality from nuclear weapons in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves:
- YES - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had NOT used tactical nor strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day, and not uses them for at least 4 weeks after that day.
- NO - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had used tactical or strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day or within 4 weeks after that day.
- N/A - If the war ends before Crimea is liberated by Ukranian forces, including the case where Crimea is returned to Ukraine as part of a peace deal.
- The intention to estimate whether Russia is likely to use nukes to prevent loosing Crimea.
- Close date updated to 2024-01-01 3:59 am