Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027?
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueOne-OffSpaceRussia / Ukraine3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.7%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète1 mars 26, 09:31 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons?
Manifold MarketsConditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated by the United States in combat or testing by December 31, 2026.
- This includes strategic warheads, tactical nuclear weapons, or any other nuclear explosive device deployed by U.S. military forces.
- Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government statements, credible news reporting from major international outlets, or public acknowledgment by the Department of Defense.
- The market resolves NO if no nuclear detonation occurs by the end of 2026.
- The United States remains the only country to have used nuclear weapons in combat, with the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will any Nuclear weapons be used by the US till 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria