Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2060 75%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète9 déc. 23, 10:29 UTC1 janv. 60, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Malaria be eradicated in humans before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy 2050, will development of biotechnology and genetic engineering render term "transgender" useless?
Manifold MarketsWill there be fresh fruit/vegetables advertised+verified as being sold "microplastics-free" in any supermarket by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?
Manifold MarketsUS Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)
PolymarketWill Joe Biden die this year?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Each date resolves YES if Malaria has been declared eradicated by the WHO (or an equivalent declaration by an appropriate organization of similar status if N/A) before Jan 1st of that year.
- With regards to ambiguity of resolution my intent with this market is: "the time at which there has been a period of no recent Malaria deaths and a reasonable expectation of no further deaths in future, as declared by an authoritative organisation" and I will seek the most objective way of defining that.
- The WHO's declaration of Smallpox eradication in 1980 would be analogous.
