Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2038 80%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+30.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
9 sept. 26, 18:12 UTC1 janv. 40, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Are almost all women into women? (will it replicate?)
Manifold MarketsWill Al take 50% of human jobs before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Glacier National Park set a visitation record in 2026?
KalshiTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRègles
I'm trying to point at jobs that can "in theory" be done by a sufficiently good multi-modal LLM.
- If the job requires only the production of digital artifacts, it counts.
- On the other hand I'm excluding:
- Jobs that require physical interaction with the world
- Jobs that depend on significant interaction with humans external to the organization
- In other words: I'm not asking when robotics will be solved, and I'm not asking when humans will be comfortable interacting with an AI.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Volume total
- 93,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 59,5 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt22.9%
- Grok+3.2pt8.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 60,8 k €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 32,3 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
- Tencent market share this week
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2038 à 80% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? sera-t-il résolu ?
- By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2040.
- Comment By what year will almost all "LLM-domain" jobs be automatable? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I'm trying to point at jobs that can "in theory" be done by a sufficiently good multi-modal LLM.