Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 57%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 31 minutes
7 janv. 25, 00:27 UTC1 janv. 45, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Al take 25% of human jobs before 2045?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al take 90% of human jobs?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Al take 50% of human jobs?
Manifold MarketsWill Al take 25% of human jobs before 2075?
Manifold MarketsMedicaid requires employment (work requirement) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWould Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria:
- The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- In this context the LFPR should fall to 31.3% or lower.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
