By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
IA3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle< 0.05x 35.4%En tête parmi 6 options
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10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète2 févr. 26, 01:41 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
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Manifold MarketsGemini 3.5 Pro when???
Manifold MarketsRègles
Intelligence bar
- "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent intelligence" is defined as any commercially available model scoring the same as Gemini 3 Pro on ECI or better
- Currently this is 154, but the bar will track any changes in ECI methodology that might change the 3 Pro score.
- Cost is defined as the price for 1m input tokens plus 1m output tokens for the cheapest model that passes the quality bar, at the generally-available API pricing tier for that model.
- At time of writing, 3-pro preview costs $2/Mtok input plus $12/Mtok output, so $14 is the reference cost basis.
- E.g. a future qualifying model that costs $1/Mtok input plus $3/MTok output would resolve as 4/14 = 0.286... thus 0.2x-0.5x.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? ?
- Manifold Markets cote < 0.05x à 35% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? sera-t-il résolu ?
- By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Intelligence bar