Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 53.8%
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271
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète24 nov. 22, 13:39 UTC31 déc. 50, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on no AGI by 2050?
Manifold MarketsBy 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
Manifold MarketsBy 2050, will there be a cure to aging?
Manifold MarketsBy 2040, will there be a cure to aging?
Manifold MarketsHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will resolve based on broad 2050 consensus (scientists, doctors, media) on whether there is a "cure for aging."
- +20 years life expectancy alone does not count; must materially change the aging process itself.
- Animal/theoretical-only results don't qualify; requires convincing human evidence (either wide use or a small number of undeniable cases).
- If longevity increases but it's debated whether aging is "cured," resolution follows expert/public consensus.
- Aim is to reflect common understanding in 2050, not technicalities.
- Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If public/media narratives diverge from science, resolution will lean toward the scientific/medical side.