Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 83.5%
Prévisionnistes
66
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète13 août 23, 19:06 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?
Manifold MarketsWill fully AI generated osu! beatmaps made by melokai.com will be used by mappers to create a starting base before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWhat year will the first fully AI generated video game reach 10 million players? 🤖🎮👾🕹️
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRègles
There is a lot of material out there and as such we cannot say "commonplace" as a % of all the material out there.
- We will conduct a poll where we ask users to rate how commonly they interact with AI-generated pornography and resolve this question to YES if a majority of them have a significant commonplace interaction.
- The explicit NSFW movies refer to pornographic videography
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace? sera-t-il résolu ?
- By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment By 2028, will fully AI generated explicit NSFW movies be commonplace? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : There is a lot of material out there and as such we cannot say "commonplace" as a % of all the material out there.