Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.2%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète31 mai 25, 18:37 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Arrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?
FutuurArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurIf Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Manifold MarketsWill the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill communists arrest me for speech violations within the next year?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2026, there is a publicly reported incident where an individual is arrested based on information provided by an artificial intelligence system that autonomously reported or "snitched" on the individual's activities, leading directly to the arrest.
- The AI system must have independently identified and reported the behavior without human initiation.
- Verification will be based on credible news sources reporting such an event.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AI snitch arrest by EOY2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 73% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand AI snitch arrest by EOY2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- AI snitch arrest by EOY2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment AI snitch arrest by EOY2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria