Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82.4%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
31 mai 25, 18:37 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
Manifold MarketsArrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?
FutuurArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurIf Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Manifold MarketsWill the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill communists arrest me for speech violations within the next year?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2026, there is a publicly reported incident where an individual is arrested based on information provided by an artificial intelligence system that autonomously reported or "snitched" on the individual's activities, leading directly to the arrest.
- The AI system must have independently identified and reported the behavior without human initiation.
- Verification will be based on credible news sources reporting such an event.
