Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 98.7%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète8 août 23, 15:19 UTC2 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsArrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?
FutuurArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolves YES if Trump is placed under house arrest as a result of a criminal conviction or as a result of a plea deal.
- Resolution is based on when he actually begins being under house arrest, not when it is announced.
- Resolves NO otherwise on January 1st, 2027.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 693 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if Trump is placed under house arrest as a result of a criminal conviction or as a result of a plea deal.