How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
PolitiqueGéopolitique5aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle1+ days 100%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète12 sept. 25, 13:24 UTC31 déc. 31, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurJair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketJair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Jair Bolsonaro ever be a candidate again for any Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsJair Bolsonaro dies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back?
Manifold MarketsRègles
On 2025-09-11, Brazil’s Supreme Court (First Panel) convicted Jair Bolsonaro in a landmark coup-plot case and set a sentence of 27 years and 3 months.
- The reported vote was 4–1, with lengthy opinions connecting the conviction to efforts to overturn the 2022 election. 🏛️
- Even with a headline sentence, custody status can shift during appeals and sentence execution in Brazil.
- Early phases may involve special accommodations, transfers, and moves among closed, semi-open, and open regimes.
- This market doesn’t adjudicate politics; it measures a single empirical variable: days spent sleeping under custodial control in a penal facility.
- Brazilian law may grant special cells or a State-Major room (“cela especial” / “sala de Estado-Maior”) to certain defendants.
