Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète27 août 26, 10:31 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
PolymarketWhat will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketCongress approves Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketWill 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following things will happen in 2026 as a result of the US Attack on Venezuela?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen as a result of the Delaney Hall protests?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if an agreement or treaty between Iran and Oman is finalized and implemented that prohibits military vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which legally or physically prevents U.S. military vessels (including the 5th Fleet) from passing through the strait to enter or exit the Persian Gulf.
- This market resolves to NO if:
- No such treaty is finalized and implemented by the cutoff date.
- A treaty is finalized but does not ban U.S. military vessels from transiting the strait.
- The blockade is lifted and military transit resumes without such restrictions.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 363 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volume total
- 9,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 245,5 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 62,8 M €
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand 5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal? sera-t-il résolu ?
- 5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment 5th Fleet Stranded as result of Iran Deal? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria