LimitlessVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 88.5%
Non 88.5%Qualité du marché
30 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
25 août 26, 11:04 UTC31 déc. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by March 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Manifold MarketsWhich month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered.
- However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
- Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
2 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence inter-plateformes de CoinRithm pour Référence CoinRithm est de 12%. L'écart entre plateformes est d'environ 1 point de pourcentage.
Référence CoinRithm 12% · 2 plateformes · 1 pt d’ecart entre venues
