KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 11 nov. 2026, 18:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Milieu du carnet sélectionné
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
Before Jan 1, 2028 68.5%En tête parmi 3 options
Before Jan 1, 2028 68.5%Qualité du marché
42 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
2,6 k €
Intérêt ouvert
3,2 k $US
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2028Écart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète9 nov. 26, 21:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Before Jan 1, 2028
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SNAP benefit restrictions become law?
KalshiWill LLM restrictions become law?
KalshiWill China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Manifold MarketsWill an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must impose a binding restriction or requirement on exports of advanced AI chips or of semiconductor manufacturing equipment or components. Export bans, license requirements or licensing standards, location-verification or other end-use security mechanisms on exported chips, mandatory congressional review of chip export licenses, and directives requiring the Bureau of Industry and Security to impose such controls, including by writing existing controls into statute, qualify. The restriction may be part of a broader law, such as the National Defense Authorization Act, and a later effective date does not delay qualification. Studies, reports, briefings, funding, sense-of-Congress provisions, and controls only on other goods, on investment, or on remote or cloud access to chips do not qualify. General sanctions, embargoes, or entity listings that restrict all exports to a country or company, without a restriction specific to chips or chipmaking equipment, do not qualify. An example of this is the Chip Security Act, which would require location verification on exported advanced AI chips.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
