KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before Dec 1, 2026 22%-5.0ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Qualité du marché
70 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
6,1 k €
Liquidité
367,6 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
4.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
28 août 26, 17:00 UTC1 déc. 26, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketWill Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Pete Hegseth next be noticably drunk in public as Secretary of Defense?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes?
KalshiPete Hegseth departure announced?
KalshiPete Hegseth's War Thunder account revealed before midterms?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Pete HegsethThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersDepartment of DefenseCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- Pete Hegseth must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance+0.4pt51%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt19%
- Tucker Carlson4%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 606,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,2 M €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.8pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.4pt14%
+48 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No84.2%
- Yes15.8%
- Volume total
- 56,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 292,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+2.6pt66%
- October 31+4.5pt41%
- September 30+4.0pt23%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party85.2%
- Republican Party14.8%
- Volume total
- 26 M €
- Volume 24h
- 261,5 k €
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his bilateral with the Taoiseach of Ireland?
- Irish Open+49.0pt99%
- Iran (3+ times)99%
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline+44.0pt99%
+24 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Fed Decision in October?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- What will Trump say during his remarks to U.S. Embassy Personnel and Business Leaders?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Texas Senate winner?
- What will Trump say during The Ingraham Angle?
- Michigan Senate winner?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Dec 1, 2026 à 22% au 12 septembre 2026.
- Quand Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? doit être résolu le 1 décembre 2026.
- Comment Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.