KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 86%
Qualité du marché
66 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
17,2 €
Liquidité
13,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
6.3% / 7.0%
Écart
0.7 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
29 déc. 25, 15:00 UTC2 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?
KalshiWill OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiWill the SAVE America Act become law?
KalshiWill the SAVE Act become law by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Library of Congress
- The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
- The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry.
- For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country.
- Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
- An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If a bill becomes law regulating AI by Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.