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Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive) 72%En tête parmi 5 options
Between 93.1% and 96.0% (inclusive) 72%Qualité du marché
25 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,2 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
14
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiWill the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This event predicts the highest verified score achieved on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark (Semi-Private Evaluation Set) by any AI system, as reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard, at any time before January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC.
- Each listed market below corresponds to one mutually exclusive percentage range of the maximum score; exactly one market will resolve "Yes".
- The Primary Designated Source is the ARC Prize official leaderboard (arcprize.org/leaderboard), specifically the highest verified ARC-AGI-2 semi-private-set score listed at any time before January 1, 2027, 00:00:00 UTC.
- Only scores that ARC Prize publicly verifies (i.e., submitted, evaluated, and listed on the leaderboard) count.
- Self-reported, unverified, or test-set results that have not been validated by the ARC Prize do not count.
- Markets whose ranges have been exceeded by a qualifying score may resolve "No" before the deadline.