Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.6%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
12 juin 26, 19:23 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Fable released before Anthropic IPO?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurRègles
Resolves to % equal to the verified score released for Claude Fable 5 for ARC-AGI-3 on https://arcprize.org/leaderboard.
- If they release multiple scores (e.g. “Low”, “High”, “Max”), this resolves to the highest score.
- If they release a “Mythos 5” score instead (with no expectation of releasing a separate Fable score) then will resolve to that.
- If they release separate Mythos 5 and Fable 5 scores, then this will resolve to the Fable score.
- Resolves “early” when the score is released, or N/A if they announce that they will never benchmark it for some reason.
