Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 90.9%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète28 mars 26, 04:17 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution criteria:
- Score must be reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard (arcprize.org) or in a peer-reviewed paper
- Must be ARC-AGI-2 specifically (not ARC-AGI-1 or other variants)
- Private/public leaderboard scores both count
- The model can use any approach (LLM, neuro-symbolic, program synthesis, etc.)
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.