Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2027-02-16 94.3%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+44.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
5 sept. 26, 16:27 UTC16 févr. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic release Mythos?
KalshiGrand Theft Auto VI: New trailer release date
KalshiPrison Break: New season release date
KalshiRègles
The '+' means any version at or above 5.2 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.2 and releases Claude Fable 5.3 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Fable 5.2, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2027-02-16 à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date sera-t-il résolu ?
- Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date doit être résolu le 16 février 2027.
- Comment Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The '+' means any version at or above 5.2 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.2 and releases Claude Fable 5.3 or Fable 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.