Will the next Claude Fable be able to autonomously make a watchable movie?
IAOne-OffDivertissement2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70.7%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète10 oct. 26, 10:00 UTC31 déc. 26, 10:40 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 26, 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Claude Fable be released?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketRègles
I will be redoing https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/24RKHEkwgZ6Hm6ygY/can-an-llm-make-a-feature-length-movie-on-its-own with Fable 5.5 once it comes out.
- I will be using the 1920s novel We by Yevgeny Zamyatin as the source material and supplying the text.
- I have a variety of software tools in a pipeline set up for this, but I plan to otherwise just tell Fable to do it with no intervention besides telling it to keep working.
- I'll try to make a transcript to prove this was autonomous.
- Whatever the "final cut" looks like I will be uploading it to my YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@joshuasnidercom) and sharing the link here.
- Will Fable's work be watchable? I will make a poll if it's ambiguous, but "watchable" is not intended to be a high quality bar.
