Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 54.6%
Prévisionnistes
59
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète16 sept. 24, 19:43 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge.
- Even if the requirements for the grand prize change in 2025, this benchmark of >=85% performance will remain unchanged.
- Learn more about the competition here: https://arcprize.org/competition.
- 2025 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1
- 2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 55% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge.