PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
No 85%+1.2pt
Calidad del mercado
72 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
857,3 €
Liquidez
8,2 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
15.0% / 15.3%
Spread
0.3 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-12.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 minutos
1 sept 26, 15:28 UTC30 jun 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI "Astra" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has the highest arena rank when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.