Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 68.3%
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Actualizado hace 20 horas
Desactualizado4 may 26, 17:53 UTC31 may 29, 23:59 UTC
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ForecastExReglas
This market resolves YES if UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 4.0 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- UC Rusal. 2024 actual 3.992 Mt; flat through sanctions period.
- The 4.0 Mt strike for 2028 reflects steady-state operations; deviations depend on geopolitical reset of end-market access rather than capacity changes.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- UC Rusal annual report and interim results https://rusal.ru/en/investors/
