Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
RegulaciónOne-OffMaterias primasChinaNegocios y empresas2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 61.5%
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Actualizado hace 35 minutos
4 may 26, 17:53 UTC31 may 29, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves YES if Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 0.7 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Century Aluminum. 2024 actual 0.69 Mt; Inola JV (Century-EGA) first metal targeted late 2028 with ~600 kt/yr nameplate.
- The 0.7 Mt strike for 2028 reflects steady-state operations; partial-year Inola contribution could push 2028 above this strike, making the probability anchored at or just above 50%.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Century Aluminum 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000949157
