Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
EconomíaOne-Off13aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 52%
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17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado19 feb 23, 23:35 UTC1 feb 40, 8:00 UTC
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This question will resolve to YES if there is at least one year during which the real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak GDP level, and NO otherwise.
- The condition that real GDP reaches a new peak level is to ensure that recovery from a recession does not trigger positive resolution.
- For example, if the GDP series was [1.0, 0.85, 1.02] this question would not resolve positively, because the greatest growth over the sequence was only 2% as measured from a prior peak.
- This question will rely on credible estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and in case there is uncertainty over whether real GDP grew by at least 15%, will wait until a final report is obtained.
- If the BEA is not active during resolution, or does not publish a relevant report, another credible source will be chosen at my sole discretion.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
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- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
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- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
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- CPI core in August
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Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 52% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak??
- Está previsto que Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2040.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This question will resolve to YES if there is at least one year during which the real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak GDP level, and NO otherwise.