Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 61.8%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado16 jul 24, 19:45 UTC31 dic 26, 18:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves according to Wikipedia article.
- Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that:
- A mention of the eruption in the volcano's own Wikipedia article is sufficient.
- The Wikipedia page "List of volcanic eruptions in the 21st century" is also a key source, as such eruptions are typically listed there.
Mercados abiertos
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+2 resultados más
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- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
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+5 resultados más
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POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
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- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
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- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
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- 1,6 M €
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- 2,9 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 62% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026??
- Está previsto que Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves according to Wikipedia article.