Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

0.6 pts (24h)WeatherOne-OffCiencia8m

PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Probabilidad implícita actual

No 96%+0.0pt

Calidad del mercado

70 / 100

Calidad media

Volumen 24h

244,4 €

Liquidez

10,5 mil €

Liquidez media

Compra / Venta

4.0% / 4.6%

Spread

0.6 pt

Spread estrecho

Cambio 7d

-0.6 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 17 minutos

29 dic 25, 23:2531 mar 27, 0:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

Yes4%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Tendencia de volumen

$278

3 jul24d de datos27 jul

Mercados Relacionados

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

14,1 mil €

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KALSHI

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

6,6 mil €

2: 54%

POLYMARKET

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

5,5 mil €

Above 125: 31%

KALSHI

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

384,5 €

Sí: 42%

KALSHI

Natural Disaster in 2026?

25,9 €

Sí: 21%

POLYMARKET

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

2,6 €

0: 70%

POLYMARKET

Activos en estos temas

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EthereumETH$1,945.68+1.78%

SolanaSOL$75.85+0.67%

DogecoinDOGE$0.072-0.89%

XRPXRP$1.09-0.98%

BNBBNB$574.40+0.25%

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Reglas

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

0.6 pts (24h)WeatherOne-OffCiencia8m

PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Probabilidad implícita actual

No 96%+0.0pt

Calidad del mercado

70 / 100

Calidad media

Volumen 24h

244,4 €

Liquidez

10,5 mil €

Liquidez media

Compra / Venta

4.0% / 4.6%

Spread

0.6 pt

Spread estrecho

Cambio 7d

-0.6 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 17 minutos

29 dic 25, 23:2531 mar 27, 0:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

Yes4%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Tendencia de volumen

$278

3 jul24d de datos27 jul

Mercados Relacionados

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

14,1 mil €

Sí: 4%

KALSHI

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

6,6 mil €

2: 54%

POLYMARKET

Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?

5,5 mil €

Above 125: 31%

KALSHI

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

384,5 €

Sí: 42%

KALSHI

Natural Disaster in 2026?

25,9 €

Sí: 21%

POLYMARKET

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

2,6 €

0: 70%

POLYMARKET

Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$64,919.84+0.41%

EthereumETH$1,945.68+1.78%

SolanaSOL$75.85+0.67%

DogecoinDOGE$0.072-0.89%

XRPXRP$1.09-0.98%

BNBBNB$574.40+0.25%

Noticias Relacionadas

Crypto is the canary in the coal mine for the quantum computing threat, experts sayCoindesk

Galaxy Digital opens $5M fund for Bitcoin quantum security researchCrypto News

Claude's Fable 5 just solved an 87-year-old math problem, and it matters for bitcoinCoindesk

Google DeepMind, Isomorphic Labs Unveil AI-Powered Bioresilience PlanBlockchain.News

NVIDIA's Ising Decoder Slashes Color Code Errors 300xBlockchain.News

NVIDIA BioNeMo Toolkit Accelerates AI-Driven Drug DiscoveryBlockchain.News

Reglas

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.