Probabilidad implícita actual
No 94%
No 94%Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
5,1 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
6.0% / 6.7%
Spread
0.7 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
10
Cambio 7d
-0.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
29 dic 25, 23:25 UTC1 abr 27, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 0,1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- Sí
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Major volcano eruption in 2026?
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PolymarketWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
- Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
- Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.