PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
Sí 52.5%
Calidad del mercado
31 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
9,4 €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
10.0% / 95.0%
Spread
85.0 pt
Spread amplioComentarios
1
Cambio 7d
+0.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 minutos
21 abr 26, 19:35 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
- If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
- If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026??
- Polymarket cotiza Yes al 52% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026??
- Está previsto que Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.