Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 4:15 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 57.3%
Pronosticadores
32
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado21 oct 26, 13:54 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, 00:00 UTC, a massive global internet disruption occurs meeting at least one of the following verifiable conditions:
- Global Traffic Collapse: Independent internet observatories—such as Cloudflare Radar, IODA, or NetBlocks—record a sustained decline of ≥20% in aggregate global internet traffic lasting continuously for at least 2 consecutive hours.
- Infrastructure Correlated Failure: Simultaneous unplanned downtime lasting at least 2 consecutive hours across three or more major global cloud or edge infrastructure providers (Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Cloudflare or other global providers of similar size), resulting in verified outages across at least 25 of the top 100 most-visited global websites according to Cloudflare Radar or Similarweb.
- Core Protocol/BGP/DNS Root Failure: Either:
- The withdrawal or unreachability of ≥15% of globally active BGP prefixes sustained for at least 2 consecutive hours, as measured by Route Views, RIPE RIS, or Cloudflare Radar; or
