Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
FedBonos y TesoroOne-OffPolíticaMacro y economíaPolítica de EE. UU.4aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:41 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.2%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado11 may 26, 14:28 UTC31 dic 30, 0:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves YES if the US federal government has, on or after January 1, 2026 and on or before December 31, 2030, unilaterally restructured previously-issued outstanding marketable US Treasury notes, bonds, or TIPS without bondholder consent.
- YES if any of the following has been announced and taken effect:
- Statutory reduction of stated coupon rate on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled extension of stated maturity on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled swap of outstanding Treasuries for new instruments with materially altered cash flows (lower coupons, longer maturities, principal haircut), including a "Mar-a-Lago Accord"-style forced swap of foreign holdings
- Statutory cap on Treasury interest payments that materially reduces coupon receipts on outstanding debt
