Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"?
RegulaciónOne-OffIA3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 64.9%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado1 jul 26, 0:38 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
A new unique model so not opus, sonnet, haiku, fable etc
- Resolution criteria
- Target Model: This market resolves based on the first brand-new, uniquely named Claude model tier or family released by Anthropic after July 1, 2026.
- To qualify, the model must use a completely new class/tier name (e.g., if Anthropic releases "Claude 6 Sonnet" or "Fable 6", it does not count).
- It must not belong to the Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos families.
- Definition of "Banned": The model will resolve YES if, within 90 days of its official public release (via API or web interface), any of the following occur:
Mercados abiertos
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- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 12,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 248,7 mil €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
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- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
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POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
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- Volumen total
- 96,6 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 65% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"??
- Está previsto que Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: A new unique model so not opus, sonnet, haiku, fable etc