Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualJanuary 2029 or earlier 64.8%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado26 dic 25, 9:30 UTC31 ene 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
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PolymarketReglas
Currently the way Claude Plays Pokemon works is that Claude executes some command with the emulator, and then after that command completes, it takes a screenshot, and considers its next move.
- When the command involves moving the character, this entails use of a "navigation" tool that allows Claude to take multiple steps at a time.
- This is presumably due to how arduous it would be to require Claude to take each step individually.
- It would produce a lot of extra tokens (filling Claude's context with useless content) with Claude not being able to process more than one screenshot per character step without having to stop and think, slowing down gameplay considerably.
- This market resolves YES for all times at or before which a general-purpose, publicly available AI model from Anthropic, either explicitly named Claude, or part of a model series clearly the successor to the Claude series of models, can process frames of a Pokemon game and take actions with an emulator tool, at a faster rate than the character in the Pokemon game can take steps.
- This speed requirement includes all networking and processing latency in an implementation of Claude Plays Pokemon, and must be demonstrated in some publicly-visible form, such as a Twitch live stream.
Mercados abiertos
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- Volumen total
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- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
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- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
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- Claude+3.6pt62%
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- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
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- 9,1 M €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps??
- Manifold Markets cotiza January 2029 or earlier al 65% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps??
- Está previsto que When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? se resuelva el 31 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Currently the way Claude Plays Pokemon works is that Claude executes some command with the emulator, and then after that command completes, it takes a screenshot, and considers its next move.