Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 64.6%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado11 ago 26, 14:29 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the first orbital launch attempt of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket successfully reaches its target orbit.
- This market will resolve to NO if the first launch attempt fails to reach orbit (e.g., due to an explosion, a failure of the first or second stage, or any other anomaly that prevents the vehicle/payload from achieving a stable orbit).
- Key details and edge cases:
- Definition of Success: Success is defined as the rocket's upper stage successfully achieving orbit, or deploying its payload (or a simulated test mass) into the planned target orbit, as officially announced by Rocket Lab, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), or independent satellite tracking databases (e.g., Jonathan's Space Report or Space-Track.org).
- Booster Recovery: The recovery, landing, or reusable splashdown attempt of the first-stage booster is not required for a "YES" resolution, unless Rocket Lab defines the entire mission as a failure solely due to a landing anomaly.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 65% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ??
- Está previsto que Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria