Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.9%
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 minutos
14 sept 26, 19:52 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Jacob Coxon publicly testify before congress by October 31?
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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KalshiReglas
Two Jacob Co??n’s in AI safety — It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s bound to…
- Resolves YES if this unambiguously happened (eg someone sending me an email that was clearly meant for Jacob Coxon).
- Resolves 50% if it’s something more marginal / unclear (like if someone misspeaks).
- Resolves NO if I have no evidence this happened by the end of the month.
- I will be excluding any efforts that I suspect were done to manipulate this market.
- General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 87,4 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 resultados más
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 228,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 239,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 53,3 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 92% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September??
- Está previsto que Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Two Jacob Co??n’s in AI safety — It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s bound to…