Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 59.7%
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139
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado28 dic 24, 18:57 UTC1 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Miles Brundage, former head of policy research at OpenAI, and Gary Marcus, NYU neuroscientist, have made a public bet about AI progress (details on Gary Marcus's Substack) that we will not see AGI by the end of 2027.
- They're operationalizing that as 8 out of the following 10 things being feasible in principle by AI:
- Understand everything about a new movie that a human does, just by watching it.
- Same but for novels.
- Write hallucination-free biographies/obituaries of New York Times quality.
- Master almost any new video game as fast as a human can.
