Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) 92.1%Líder entre 14 opciones
Pronosticadores
41
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado8 ene 25, 12:19 UTC31 ene 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.
- The terms of the bet are articulated in this substack post. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
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POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
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- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels) al 92% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?
- Está previsto que Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage se resuelva el 31 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage made a public bet about AI development.