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Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
One-OffCienciaSociedad y cultura
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual
2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) 69.6%Líder entre 4 opciones
2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) 69.6%Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+14.2 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado10 nov 23, 19:48 UTC2 ene 00, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
Resolves annually to Metaculus' community prediction.
- Feel free to add new years and integer thresholds in a matching format.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/578/?theme=light)