Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNolan (2026) 97.6%
Pronosticadores
29
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado23 jul 26, 19:54 UTC31 dic 27, 20:51 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on which adaptation of Homer's The Odyssey is preferred by the Manifold community, subject to the following rules:
- Grok's Release Condition: Elon Musk pledged that the named outcome will produce a "full-length movie" of The Odyssey by the end of 2026.
- If a feature-length (at least 40 minutes long) adaptation of The Odyssey generated by the named outcome is not made publicly viewable on X or another platform by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, this market will automatically resolve to Nolan (2026).
- Community Preference Poll: If the the named outcome adaptation is successfully released by the deadline, the creator will pin a poll in the comments of this market (or link to a dedicated Manifold poll) asking: "Which version of The Odyssey do you prefer: Christopher Nolan's (2026) or the named outcome's?"
- Voting & Final Resolution: The poll will run for 7 days.
Mercados abiertos
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- Volumen total
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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- Volumen total
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- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
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+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Nolan (2026) al 98% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey??
- Está previsto que Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria