Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 90.4%
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39
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado10 oct 25, 2:58 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Inspired by this:
- [image]https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener#afxuogp7anb
- As per Musk's tweet, "really good" means a substantial increase over merely "watchable," but not to the level of high budget studio blockbuster.
- It must be a full length "movie," not merely a long video (e.g. video essay), or a short cohesive narrative/piece of art along the lines of a student film.
- And it must be made by Grok, although very modest human help is acceptable, so no need for 1-shot from the prompt.
- This is obviously an inherently subjective market, but I will try my best to be fair and impartial.
