Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 79.5%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC2 ene 27, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?
Manifold MarketsDid Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)
Manifold MarketsWill the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.
- Some sources have recently argued that the science and statistics used to support that conviction may have been shoddy: https://rexvlucyletby2023.com/ https://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated by a court? This question resolved YES if she is released from prison either because a court of jurisdiction has determined her innocent (under any legal standard), or because a court has determined that she can't be held due to flaws in her trial or the evidence presented at her trial, and no new trial is expected to take place.
- This question resolves NO if that has not occurred by Jan 1, 2027.
- (If significant legal proceedings are in progress on that date, this will be extended until they are concluded).
- (For purposes of this question, if a court determines that she is not guilty of intentional murder, but substitutes a lesser charge involving negligence, manslaughter, or medical practice, this does count as exoneration.)
Mercados abiertos
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volumen total
- 9,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 8,6 mil €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-5.5pt16%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Volumen total
- 503,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,6 mil €
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+5.5pt70.3%
- Yes-5.5pt29.7%
- Volumen total
- 353,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6 mil €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++2.5pt39.2%
- 20–40+2.8pt10.8%
+2 resultados más
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan-2.0pt22%
- Mahmoud Khalil17%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero+2.0pt15%
+21 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,1 M €
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- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
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- Who will be arrested before 2027?
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- Jessica Tisch out as New York City Police Commissioner by which date?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Lucy Letby be exonerated??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 80% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Lucy Letby be exonerated??
- Está previsto que Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Lucy Letby be exonerated??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.