Will "Increasing returns to effort are common" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffIATecnologíaSociedad y cultura3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 85.3%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 49 minutos
Retrasado3 mar 26, 23:03 UTC1 feb 27, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?
Manifold MarketsWill "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketLeague City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
PolymarketReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Increasing returns to effort are common is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
