Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 27 oct 2026, 11:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 60.1%
Pronosticadores
72
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
17 jul 23, 4:23 UTC1 ene 30, 15:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030.
- Decision criteria: Go to Google Trends and search for 'Eliezer Yudkowsky'.
- Set the search window from 2004 to present.
- Set the area to be 'United States.' If the December 2029 trend score is less than or equal to three times the Feb 2022 trend score, then this market resolves as YES.
- If Yudkowsky has been turned into paperclips by 2030 by an AI, claim resolves as NO on grounds of his martyrdom.
- [If Google Trends ceases to exist by 2030, I will use the same algorithm on an equivalent service if it exists.
