Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 58%
Pronosticadores
70
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado17 jul 23, 4:23 UTC1 ene 30, 15:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030.
- Decision criteria: Go to Google Trends and search for 'Eliezer Yudkowsky'.
- Set the search window from 2004 to present.
- Set the area to be 'United States.' If the December 2029 trend score is less than or equal to three times the Feb 2022 trend score, then this market resolves as YES.
- If Yudkowsky has been turned into paperclips by 2030 by an AI, claim resolves as NO on grounds of his martyrdom.
- [If Google Trends ceases to exist by 2030, I will use the same algorithm on an equivalent service if it exists.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 58% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030?
- Está previsto que Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030 se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves as YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky, founder of the LessWrong forum, prominent advocate of the idea that AI will cause the extinction of humanity, and perhaps the founder of a new apocalyptic religious movement (https://web.archive.org/web/20230707061904/https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/) is irrelevant by 2030.