Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 98.2%
Pronosticadores
64
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado3 abr 23, 14:28 UTC1 ene 30, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Aella have a child by 2030?
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PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
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KalshiReglas
[tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth.
- An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate.
- (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)
Mercados abiertos
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 30,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 18 mil €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volumen total
- 8,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,7 mil €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 15,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volumen total
- 516,1 €
- Volumen 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volumen total
- 516,1 €
- Volumen 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volumen total
- 136,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 419 €
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- US test scores in Math in 2026?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 98% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029??
- Está previsto que Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: [tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth.