Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 50.8%
Pronosticadores
62
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
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Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado24 sept 23, 1:46 UTC2 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner.
- This works fine with other enfranchised rationalists, but makes it difficult for him to be understood when speaking to a general audience.
- For example, in the Destiny vs. Eliezer debate, Destiny took care to use common words and simple, concise descriptions.
- Eliezer by contrast would use various terms-of-art and subculture references that many audience members (and even Destiny himself) wouldn't understand, and would give long rambling vague answers that made people think he was dodging the question.
- If I find a relatively technical discussion of Eliezer's, lasting at least a half hour, where he does a better job of communicating in a way that won't be off-putting to most educated English speakers, I'll resolve this to YES.
- Otherwise it resolves to NO.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 51% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner.